Horeca 2021 coffee market is recovering, but not yet at pre-pandemic values

Competitive Data released2022 edition of the report Coffee in Ho.Re.Ca.where it analyzes the market trend over the last three years, with forecasts up to 2024. The roasters covered in the report have a combined market share of 78.9% in value, 70.7% in volume and develop a total combined turnover (all channels, all products) of EUR 3,504.0 million.

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THE COMPETITIVE SCENARIO

In the previous edition of the coffee report in Ho.Re.Ca. It was assumed that the covid-19 pandemic would have favored the more solid and structured roastery companies, which could take advantage of the opportunities that would have presented themselves in the market. And that is exactly what happened in 2021 with significant movements in the upper part of the rankings, where important changes were registered.

We also register a reality that begins to show a certain consistency and solidity: theinterlacing increasingly related between sustainability, digitization, economic-financial structureAnd market share.

The most solid and resilient roastery companies, which have managed to develop expansive strategies despite the unfavorable market conditions, are also those which, in addition to the very satisfactory economic dimension in themselves, have a high competitiveness index (profitability, technology and digitalisation, innovation, social responsibility initiatives), which this year also saw the standings of some medium-sized roasteries improve.

However, there are still few coffee roasters reorganizing to face the new competitive scenario. The good news is that the most proactive seek cover to try to build critical mass and aim to restart with appropriate investments. In this regard, there were also some surprises in the middle segment of the market, where very dynamic roasters have launched a series of activities, including acquisitions and partnerships, which allow them to reposition themselves and create new opportunities.

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MARKET TRENDS

In 2021, sale of roasted coffee in Ho.Re.Ca. registered a partial rebound in the value of + 21.7%to solve for a corresponding value of 588.0 million euros, still far from pre-covid levels (866.0 million euros).

The reasons for the lack of total recovery were various and attributable to an uncertain health situation that generated an “elastic” recovery during the year.

Source: Competition data

SOLVENCY OF THE BAR

The assessment of bars’ capacity to withstand a protracted decline in revenue continued this year.

The greater or lesser ability to absorb financial imbalances arising from a prolonged lack of liquidity is expressed using a value scale, where +5 is the maximum value indicating great financial solvency and -5 is the value indicating a strong difficulty to cope of a protracted liquidity shock.

Overall, the risk indices for the bar channel improved slightly compared to a year ago; This is due to the partial recovery of consumption in 2021 and the exit of the most vulnerable operators from the market, which also continued in these first months of 2022.

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Roasters have to get used to dealing with greater quantity and complexity variables exogenous and endogenous to the business, and of the combinations between the weighting of the social, economic, competitive, political, climatic, health, energy dimensions, which can violently affect the company’s balance, and which make it necessary track (at least) two types of scenarios.

If in the short term it has been calculated in approx 80 million euros the difference between the optimistic and non-optimistic scenarios, and therefore the impact that pandemic emergency, energy price increases, inflation growth, monetary restrictions will have on the overall results of coffee in Ho.Re.Ca. in 2022, in the medium term i mega trend which will need to be controlled are sustainability, digitization, premiumization, international scenarios, among others.

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THE COFFEE REPORT IN THE HORECA CHANNEL CONSISTS OF 3 SECTIONS

1. MARKET

The trend of production, import, export, apparent consumption of coffee. The structure of prices, costs, revenues, critical success factors, competitive dynamics.

The trend in the coffee market in Ho.Re.Ca. during the period 2019-2021, by value, volume, segment:

  • Roasted decaffeinated coffee
  • Roasted decaffeinated coffee
  • Coffee beans
  • A portion of coffee

Forecasts until 2024with different scenarios depending on the effect of energy, health, geopolitical and climate variablesetc.

2. COMPETITIVE

Total turnover, specific turnover, of first 60 roasts Italian. Market shares in terms of value and volumeexport quotas, competitive strategies, price, product and distribution positions.

The economic-financial indicators of the best results, the ownership structures, the most important extraordinary transactions for the entire coffee sector, the resistance maps of the Italian roastery companies.

Digital: the reputation of the main brands on the Internet, what is said about them, the digital strategies, the content most appreciated by users on the theme of coffee, the social media performance indicators of all players.

3. CUSTOMERS

Consumption and main demographic indicators of end customers. Expenses for coffee and catering operations by region. Changes in coffee consumption styles outside the home.

Number and trends of intermediate customers: bars, restaurants, dining rooms, ice cream bars, pastry shopsetc.

Especially for bar And restaurants the average values ​​related to: revenue, profit / loss, duration of debt, debt, profitability, by region.

Revenue, Ebitda, Debt, Payment Times for the First 120 Chains of commercial catering.

Source:
www.monitoraitalia.it/caffe-nel-canale-horeca-dal-2019-al-2024/

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