VIETNAM Vietnam, coffee production falls. Global deliveries at risk

The country ranks second in the world for production, but harvests are also expected to decrease for next year. Raw materials are scarce and stocks of Robusta quality are about to be cut in half. On the other hand, the increase in the value of exports continues: from 2.24 billion euros in 2020 to over three billion last year.

Ho Chi Minh City (AsiaNews) – The decline in production that has been going on for some time in what is the world’s second largest supplier of coffee, and is expected to worsen next year, threatens to undermine a trade already marked globally by product shortages for to reduce harvests and reduced reserves. Vietnamese producers report strong concerns about the shortage of products among the largest recently. And if the stored coffee is halved in the coming weeks compared to the usual quantities, the price of Robusta quality, the main one for export, has already reached record levels. A reduced availability affected by the 17% increase in exports between January and July compared to the same period in 2021, necessary to guarantee the necessary supply in the global market and prevent further overheating of prices.

The second world producer after Brazil and permanently in the top five for coffee exports, unlike other strong producers, Vietnam has a large domestic market, which – with an annual per capita consumption estimated by the World Bank at 0.5 kg – in 2021 absorbed about 10% of the entire production of 700-800 thousand tons. An amount that has increased drastically over time, from 6 thousand tons produced in 1975 to 1,650 thousand in 2016 with a fluctuating result in subsequent periods.

Although production has declined significantly, partially offset by the strong appreciation of Robusta quality, export value has continued, climbing from €2.24 billion in value in 2020 to over three billion last year. A figure equivalent to 10% of all agricultural exports and 3% of Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The release on the market of 30.2 million bags for the year 2020-2021, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous business year, was in any case better than the forecasts of a decrease in production and exports from other countries’ producers. However, this is an unsustainable situation in a difficult global situation due to the climate situation, high transport costs and economic difficulties, which risks reducing the outlook that the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association indicated last year, according to which the commercialization of coffee would have reached 5-6 billion in value in 2030 under the banner “productivity, quality, added value”.


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